Prof. Dr. Nur Köprülü, Head of the Department of Political Science of the Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Near East University, assessed the recent developments in the Middle East, stating that these developments should not be seen as a crisis centered on Iran, but rather as a multi-layered power struggle with the potential to affect regional and global geopolitical balances.
The escalating military tension in the Middle East as of February 28, 2026, is considered a critical threshold that could reshape regional power balances. Prof. Dr. Nur Köprülü emphasized that the developments, which have entered a new phase with the US and Israeli attacks on Iran, should not be read solely as a crisis centered on Iran, but as part of a multi-layered power struggle with the potential to affect regional and global geopolitical balances.
A new conflict zone has emerged with the direct involvement of the US.
According to Prof. Dr. Nur Köprülü, the recent developments have created a new context for the direct intervention of the US in the hot conflict environment that spread across the Middle East after October 7th. This means adding an extra layer to the new geopolitical equation that was taking shape in the region before and after October 7th.
Prof. Dr. Köprülü stated that the conflict environment that spread to the region after October 7th has integrated Western countries, primarily the US and the UK, more strongly into the equation, and that today’s developments should be evaluated within the context of the new power balances that emerged after the “Arab Spring” uprisings that began in 2011.
Developments should be interpreted on a regional and global scale
Prof. Dr. Nur Köprülü, Head of the Department of Political Science at the Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences of Near East University, stated that the developments in a wide geographical area stretching from Gaza to Lebanon, from Syria to Yemen, should be assessed together with Israel’s pursuit of regional influence and the search for a new “order” shaped within the framework of the Abraham Accords, emphasizing that the conflict environment can now be considered to have effectively begun for some Western countries as well.
Although the US initially approached the process precautiously, Israel’s attacks on Iran and Iran’s targeting of US bases in the Gulf countries and Jordan have revealed a picture directly related to the restructuring of the balance of power in the region. Prof. Dr. Köprülü stated that this process cannot be explained solely by the goal of regime change in Iran.
Prof. Dr. Nur Köprülü said, “The fact that the US and Israel, especially Saudi Arabia, did not bring up the Abraham Accords by referring to the events in Gaza and the Palestinian issue, and that they did not implicitly support Israel’s penetration attempts within a framework that could be defined as unified with the countries of the region, indicates that the issue is not limited to Iran at this stage. In conclusion, the developments in our immediate geography in the current conjuncture show us that we are at a critical juncture that cannot be interpreted solely as a matter of possible regime change in Iran.”
Regional alliances and new security quests
Prof. Dr. Nur Köprülü also pointed out that the attacks on Iran occurred after the stalled negotiations in Geneva, mediated by Oman. She further stated that developments such as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s statements pointing to sectarian polarization, the increased military cooperation between India and Israel, and the possibility of Turkey joining the military pact formed between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia should be considered together.
Prof. Dr. Köprülü noted that actors such as Turkey, the Gulf states, Qatar, Egypt, and Jordan are seeking a balancing position in the face of the emerging new regional order. She stated that this approach is clearly visible in the context of the reconstruction of Gaza and the vision of a “new Syria.”
Regional security concerns are deepening
Although Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the attacks on US bases did not target regional countries, it was emphasized that these developments have created security concerns encompassing the entire region.
Prof. Dr. Köprülü stated that the potential of the attacks against Iran to transform the political balance within the country and unite the opposition around the leadership is being discussed, emphasizing that the current developments should not be considered merely an Iran-centered crisis, but rather as part of a multi-layered process that has the potential to structurally shape regional balances and the global geopolitical security architecture.
Köprülü added that the current stage marks a critical juncture in the region and that it is imperative to consider these events as part of a comprehensive power struggle.