Near East University scientists, in their report on the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2, warned that if no precautions are taken, the number of daily COVID-19 cases in the TRNC could reach 2,000 at the end of 1 month.

Omicron, the new variant of SARS-CoV-2, which has affected the whole world in recent weeks, indicates that a new era has been entered in the COVID-19 pandemic. With the spread of Omicron, which is classified as an alarming variant by the World Health Organization, COVID-19 cases have increased in the TRNC as well as all over the world. The TRNC Ministry of Health announced that on December 31, 2021, 666 positive cases were detected in the country, and then on 4 January 2021, just after five days, this number has reached to 700 which was recorded as the highest number of cases of the pandemic period.

In the "Technical Information Report on SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant Surveillance and Risk Evaluation in Northern Cyprus" prepared by Near East University scientists, it was warned that the number of daily cases in the TRNC could reach 2,000 at the end of 1 month, and recommendations were made regarding the precautions to be taken.

The report, which was also shared with the TRNC Presidency, Prime Ministry, Ministry of Health, Ministry of National Education and Culture, contains important findings about Omikron, the new variant of SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19. Emphasizing that Omicron has almost 50 sub-mutations, most of which have the potential to escape from the immune system and are more contagious, the report said, “Omicron is a variant quite different from the variants identified so far. Compared to other variants, it has approximately 3.3 times more mutation gains per month and 5 times more mutation rate.”

After 1 month, the number of daily cases in the TRNC can reach up to two thousand
Near East University, which has been following SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19, with all its variants since the first day of the pandemic, continues to monitor and analyze the effects of the Omicron variant. The “Technical Information Report on SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant Surveillance and Risk Assessment in Northern Cyprus” prepared by Near East University reveals many details about the Omicron variant. In the most striking part of the report, a striking warning is made about the Omicron variant. In the report, “As a result of the estimation analyzes we have made using the data of the last 14 days, if the increase in Omicron-induced cases continues without any precautions after 30 days, the daily number of SARS-CoV-2 PCR positive cases in Northern Cyprus will be approximately 2000 and it is estimated that the Omicron variant will be detected in 66 percent of cases”.

Viral load increased 10 times more in patients with the Omicron variant
One of the striking results in the report is related to the increase in viral load and vaccine efficacy in patients infected with the Omicron variant. The report states that there is a decrease in vaccine efficacy against the Omicron variant. It raises concerns that there may be a significant reduction in vaccine efficacy against CoV-2 infection. It shows that even in the case of lower infection/disease severity with the Omicron variant, a steep, exponential increase in cases caused by the Omicron variant can result in an increased number of cases with severe disease.”

The report also includes the results of the analysis of the Uniplex-Q SARS-CoV-2 QRT-qPCR Diagnostic Kit developed at the Near East University Kit Production Laboratory to determine the viral loads of people infected with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant. Emphasizing that the viral load is 10 times higher in patients infected with the Omicron variant, the report indicates that the Omicron variant can evade vaccine or naturally acquired immunity. In the report, “As a result of our research on the regression analysis correlation of the viral loads of people infected with the Omicron variant in Northern Cyprus, the viral load increased 10 times (p-value=0.01) with the transmission of the Omicron variant, and this shows that Omicron can evade acquired and/or natural immunity from existing vaccines (Figure 3)”. In the conclusion part of the report, “To slow the spread of Omicron variant and keep the health and disease burden related to COVID-19 manageable, a quick review of pandemic measures such as social distancing, wearing masks, hygiene, vaccination passports and PCR screening tests should be done with accurate diagnostic tests. and it is urgent to take measures to reduce the rate of SARS-CoV-2 PCR positive cases, which is ~5% when calculated according to the number of tests performed daily, to normal values.

Prof. Dr. Tamer Şanlıdağ: “As Near East University, we continue to monitor and analyze the effects of the Omicron variant, as in other variants of SARS-CoV-2, with our strong infrastructure and competent staff.”
"As Near East University, we continue to monitor and analyze the effects of the Omicron variant, as in other variants of SARS-CoV-2, with our strong infrastructure and competent staff," said Near East University Vice-Rector Prof. Dr. Tamer Şanlıdağ, and continued as follows; “We consider it our duty to share the 'SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant Surveillance and Risk Assessment Technical Information Report in Northern Cyprus', which we prepared within our university, with the affiliated institutions and the public as a requirement of our responsibility to our society and state."

Emphasizing that the effectiveness of the vaccine against the Omicron variant is lower than the other variants, Prof. Dr. Tamer Şanlıdağ said, “If the current spread of the Omicron variant continues, we predict that the number of daily cases in the TRNC will reach 2,000 at the end of 1 month.” (Figure 2)

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Mahmut Çerkez Ergören: “Omicron variant; The changes in vaccine effectiveness, the rate of spread of the virus, the severity of the disease and the death rate reveal that the strategies applied in the fight against COVID-19 need to be reconsidered.”
Associate Professor of Near East University COVID-19 PCR Diagnosis and Kit Production Laboratories, who prepared the "SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant Surveillance and Risk Evaluation Technical Information Report in Northern Cyprus", Dr. Mahmut Çerkez Ergören, on the other hand, emphasized that the COVID-19 pandemic has entered a new era with the Omicron variant, and said, “The Omicron variant; the changes in vaccine effectiveness, the rate of spread of the virus, the severity of the disease and the death rate reveal that the strategies applied in the fight against COVID-19 need to be reconsidered."

Stating that they detected the first Omicron case in the TRNC in a patient from London on 17 December, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Mahmut Çerkez Ergören said, “We perform the SARS-CoV-2 mutation determination in our laboratory, in accordance with the World Health Organization standards, based on the principle of S gene failure, and we can detect all 6 mutations of the virus.”