Near East University DESAM Institute: “TRNC’s Corona Virus R0 Value is 2.06”

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Added On: 15 September 2020, Tuesday, 16:22
Last Edited On: 15 September 2020, Tuesday, 16:54

Near East University DESAM Institute: “TRNC’s Corona Virus R0 Value is 2.06”

R0 value must be below 1 in order to control the outbreak
Near East University DESAM Mathematical Modeling Research Group announced that the “R0” value (the number of contamination) of the coronavirus epidemic in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus is 2.06. The “R0” value, known as the basic transmission number, shows how many people an infected person carrying the virus can infect others.

Near East University DESAM Institute Mathematical Modeling Research Group leader Prof. Dr. Evren Hıncal said that the R0 value, which indicates the contagiousness of the COVID-19 outbreak, indicates that the number of cases in the community has increased at a certain rate. Stating that the number of R0 should be less than 1 in order to claim that the epidemic is under control, Prof. Dr. Hıncal noted that in the calculations made, the R0 value of our country was found to be 2.06 on September 15, 2020, and this value indicates that one person is currently transmitting the virus to 2 people. Prof. Dr. Hıncal stated that if the R0 value is less than 1, the epidemic will begin to be brought under control.

Outbreak data in the country used …
Stating that mathematical modeling has recently become a very important part of modern medical research, Prof. Dr. Hıncal said that the SEIR Model was used to calculate the R0 number of the corona virus. SEIR Model; The number of cases in the country was calculated by taking into account asymptomatic cases, those with mild and severe illness, those who died and those who recovered.

Prof. Dr. Şanlıdağ: “We expect the number of cases to decrease as of September 22…”
Near East University Vice Rector and Director of DESAM Institute Prof. Dr. Tamer Şanlıdağ said that they anticipate that the number of cases will decrease as of September 22 and the R0 value will decrease with the measures taken in accordance with the model and the people’s compliance with the rules.

Stating that if the measures are not followed, the course of virus transmission may increase again. Prof. Dr. Şanlıdağ emphasized that in order to prevent the spread of the virus, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to social distance, hygiene and use of masks.