Important Statement From Near East University DESAM Institute on COVID-19 Outbreak in Our Country

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Added On: 04 October 2020, Sunday, 15:46
Last Edited On: 06 October 2020, Tuesday, 10:05

Important Statement From Near East University DESAM Institute on COVID-19 Outbreak in Our Country

The number of Corona Virus contagious decreases: “R0 Value is 1.45 …”

Near East University DESAM Estimator Mathematical Modeling Research Group informed that the “R0” value, which shows the number of contagiousness of the coronavirus, has dropped to 1.45 in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.

Near East University DESAM Institute Mathematical Modeling group researchers, Prof. Dr. Evren Hınçal, Assist. Prof. Dr. Bilgen Kaymakamzade and Nezihal Gökbulut stated that the R0 value decreased to 1.45 as of October 2, 2020.

Regarding the study carried out with the value of R0, Prof. Dr. Evren Hıncal said, “We have been following the Covid-19 outbreak with the SEIR model since March 9, 2020. With the opening of July 1 which is the date accepted for the second stage of the pandemic, the R0 value, known as the basic contagiousness number in the pandemic, reached 2.06 in the TRNC. The R0 value, which decreased as of September 22, was determined as 1.45 on October 2, 2020. We see that the measures taken and the people’s compliance with these measures positively affected the results ”.

The R0 value, which indicates the number of people a person will infect the virus, is calculated by taking into account the number of cases in the country, asymptomatic cases, those who have mild and severe illness, those who died and recovered.

Prof. Dr. Tamer Şanlıdağ: “As DESAM Institute, we predicted that the R0 value would decrease after September 22nd…”
Near East University DESAM Institute Director Prof. Dr. Tamer Şanlıdağ, in his comments on the subject, said, “In the studies carried out by the Near East University DESAM Mathematical Modeling Research Group, we predicted that the R0 value of the country would decrease as of September 22nd. In the calculations made, the R0 value of our country was determined to be 2.06 on September 15, 2020, and this value meant that one person transmitted the virus to 2 other people. With the measures taken according to the model and the public’s compliance with the rules, we confirmed our prediction that the number of cases and the R0 value will decrease in new calculations. This number not only gives an idea of how many people the virus can be transmitted to, but also reveals how effective the measures taken during the pandemic were. In this context, it is of great importance to complying with the measures”.